Forecast of new apartment prices in Tokyo from 2018 onwards

The Japan Real Estate Institute (JREI) has issued an updated medium-term forecast for the price of brand new apartments in Tokyo’s 23 wards over the next seven years. Price predictions have been revised updwards from last year’s forecast. In 2018, average new apartment prices are expected to be 994,000 Yen/sqm, up 0.5% from 2017 and 4.4% higher than their previous forecast.

In 2019, the average price is expected to drop by 0.6% to 989,000 Yen/sqm, and a further 2.4% in 2020 to 965,000 Yen/sqm. The predicted decline is attributed to the scheduled increase in the consumption tax rate from its current level of 8% to 10% in 2019. Consumption tax applies to the building portion of brand new apartment sales or transactions where the seller is a corporation, but does not apply to the land portion of the sale. Developers typically pass along any increase in consumption tax rates to consumers, leading to a last-minute rush by buyers before the tax deadline kicks in.

In 2025, the average price of a new apartment is forecast to be 967,000 Yen, 4.2% higher than their earlier forecast.

Forecasting future property prices is an impossible task and data can be unreliable due to the unpredictable nature of the market and the factors influencing it.  Back in 2014, the Institute forecasted that the average price of a new apartment would be 816,000 Yen/sqm in 2020, while the most recent forecast puts it at 965,000 Yen/sqm (a 18.3% difference).

RENT FORECASTS

The average rent of a brand new apartment is predicted by the Institute to see gradual increases up until 2020. In 2018 the average monthly rent is forecast to reach 3,367 Yen/sqm, up 1.4% from 2017. By 2020 it is expected to reach 3,413 Yen/sqm, before declining to 3,407 Yen/sqm by 2025.

ABOUT THE DATA

The Institute has been providing property market forecasts for Tokyo’s 23 wards since 1998. Reports are based on their own housing market index, GDP, private housing investment and population trends. New apartment prices and rents are based on standard apartments sized between 40 ~ 80 sqm.

These are predictions only and should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. Show Foto KK does not support or endorse the accuracy or reliability of these forecasts.

Source: The Japan Real Estate Institute, May 29, 2018.

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